The Storm Before the Calm

When Can We Hit Reboot? Pt. 14

by Patrick H. Ruane and Ravi Pamnani, Jan 27, 2021

This is an ongoing series to try to make sense of the Covid-19 pandemic trajectory and try to project its course through various data visualizations. Find the previous post here (Part 13).

We have been hearing tragic stories about vaccine getting wasted because of the cold storage requirement and/or bad logistics, and of course we know many, many people who want to get vaccinated. One of the authors (PHR) is part of a team that has developed a web app called VaxPaxx to match vaccine supply and demand. If you are in need of a vaccine, if you are a pharmacist who has extra vaccine available that will get otherwise wasted, or if you are vaccine recipient at a pharmacy and can find out how many doses are available, check it out.

Plotting the cumulative reported global cases from Day 100 onwards (Figure 1) yields an excellent power fit (R² = 0.999).

Using this simple calculation we can determine the estimated number of cases at various points in the future:

• Mid-Jan = 95 M
• Mid-Apr = 170 M
• Mid-Jul = 274 M
• Mid-Oct = 411 M
• And one year from today = ~600 M

So as you can see this is actually a fairly slow moving pandemic and at current rates of infection it would take several years to reach global herd immunity.

Figure 1. Global actual cumulative Covid-19 cases vs. the Model (power fit). Life imitating math imitating life.

There are two caveats:

1. The new virus strain which is much more contagious could accelerate this significantly, and
2. A rapid rollout of the vaccines will slow this significantly.

Israel leads the world in terms of vaccine rollout. As and of Jan 24th, 2021 the numbers stand at 40% of their population has received the vaccine and 6% are infected (Figure 2). They are approaching Herd Immunity (~70%).

Figure 2. Israel cumulative Covid-19 cases over time and the vaccine rollout. Not even a dent as of Jan 24th, 2021.

However, their cases continued to rise, even 4 weeks after the initial vaccine roll-out. The message here is that with the new mutations it is critically important that each country gets to Herd Immunity asap. In the USA, the number of cases stand at around 7%. This could easily triple within a month or two if the more contagious version of the virus, well, goes VIRAL.

UPDATE: Israel saw a momentary sharp drop in cases on Jan 25th, 2021, but then new cases yesterday seemed to have bounced back (Figure 3). They are now at 55% vaccinated or infected, yet new cases and deaths are still high. The next 7 days will be the ultimate test for the vaccines.

Figure 3. Finally, a dent. But then another influx. This number may bounce around but if this vaccine works as well as it did in the clinical trials, this number should start to drop.

Some prominent countries, the USA is still the black sheep of the international community, hopefully the new administration can get a handle on things (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Covid-19 prevalence vs. new cases, select countries (semilog).

DUQ and IE clearly illustrate the 2nd strain (Figure 5) — coming soon to America.

Figure 5. Covid-19 prevalence vs. new cases, DUQ vs. Ireland (log-log).

USA has reached 7.3% infected, compared to the Canada’s 1.8% (Figure 6). Lets just call this extra 5.5% the Trump effect, his administration and the passive support of the GOP is so far responsible for nearly 16 million avoidable cases of Covid-19, hundreds of thousands of American deaths, and untold lives that will never be the same. History will judge him and the Republican Party harshly.

Figure 6. Covid-19 prevalence vs. new cases, USA vs. Canada (log-log).

Sweden has finally admitted it was wrong and are now taking the proper measures to protect its citizens (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Covid-19 prevalence vs. new cases, Finland vs. Sweden (log-log).

North Dakota has about one tenth the population of Singapore, but ND has even more cases than SG (Figure 8), this can only be due to culture and government policy. Singapore has reported 29 deaths, wheras ND has reported a staggering 1,152 deaths due to COVID-19, thats a factor of (1152/29)*10 = 400 times worse in terms of mortality.

North Dakotans are 400 times more likely to die from Covid-19 vs. Singaporeans!

Figure 8. Covid-19 prevalence vs. new cases, North Dakota vs. Singapore (log-log).

Let’s compare Claifornia and Florida: Fox News certianly does, so do our two conservative friends (Frick and Frack).

The story goes as follows: California is an oppressive socialist society where you have to eat while wearing a mask and Antifa militias will shoot you on the spot if you approach another human within 6 feet. Whereas, Florida, basking in Jod’s glorious sunshine, is a free market capitalist utopia, and no one ever wears a mask or socially distances because it’s for losers.

However, the number of cases per capita in each state is exactly the same, currently at 7.3% (or about 73,000 cases per 1 million population, vertical red dashed line, Figure 9). Therefore, social distancing and mask wearing are wholly unnecessary and Covid-19 is just a made up libtard story.

Figure 9. Covid-19 prevalence vs. new cases, California vs. Florida. Red line is at ~73,000 cases per 1 million people.

Let’s delve a little deeper and see what is not being reported:

1. Florida’s cases are most likely underreported, as there are numerous reports that Gov. DeSantis has been directing this, and he has even arrested a whistle blower (Rebekah Jones).
2. Let’s look at the number of deaths in Florida (25,000) vs. California (33,000). Deaths are a lot harder to underreport, because you run out of places to hide the dead bodies. Let’s compare these numbers as a percent of the population. In CA, we get 830 dead per 100K Covid-19 cases, while in FL, we get and 1,160 dead per 100K Covid-19 cases. That’s a 40% increase in mortality, so either Covid-19 is 40% deadlier for Floridians vs. Californians, or, following Occam’s razor, the most likely explanation is that Gov. DeSantis and his cronies really are underreporting the number of cases. This needs to stop.

Misinformation, lack of accountability, and cultural stubbornness has compounded and continues to worsen an already historically tragic pandemic. More than a third of those in Texas would likely not choose to get the vaccine, resulting in likely an inability to achieve herd immunity. This is madness.

With new strains increasing in prevalence due to their increased virulence, the timing could be tragic if the mutated virus were to reach China amid their upcoming new year’s celebrations.

A change in leadership in the US (one that may actually provide leadership on fighting the pandemic) is a hopeful sign, but if individuals refuse to take the vaccine… well, you can only lead a horse to water, you can’t make it drink. Even if that drink will save your (or your family member’s) life.